Unorthodox, late-cycle fiscal stimulus and deregulation have countered the impact of measured monetary tightening – contributing to a notable acceleration in U.S. economic growth, with real GDP on pace to increase +3.0% in 2018. Over the previous 5-year period, the compound annual growth rate was +2.2%. Leading economic indicators suggest the economy will remain relatively robust heading into 2019, but we anticipate that GDP growth will moderate gradually to the low +2.0% range by the end of next year as the impact of fiscal stimulus fade, financial conditions tighten, and inflationary pressures mount. Escalating trade tensions, diverging global growth prospects, rising interest rates, and an appreciating U.S. dollar risk are dampening the resurgence in domestic business optimism and capital investment. Further, U.S. federal debt held by the public will balloon +37% to $20.3 trillion by year-end 2022, according to the Congressional Budget Office – possibly crowding out private investment. Nevertheless, absent shocks, recession within the next 18 to 24 months appears unlikely as we anticipate many of the favorable underpinnings of the expansion will remain intact.